A Maersk-led warning that trade volatility is reshaping global supply chains sits at the centre of a broader, increasingly coherent picture of how policymakers, businesses and suppliers are reconfiguring international trade in 2025. The core message from Maersk’s report is stark: tariffs, regulatory shifts and geopolitical shocks are no longer abstract risks but active forces pushing companies to redesign where they source, manufacture and store goods. The Inside Logistics summary of Maersk’s findings shows almost half of business leaders view rising tariffs and trade barriers as their primary international challenge, with geopolitical risk ranking close behind. More than four in ten supply chain executives expect double-digit increases in input costs, while a majority of companies have already faced penalties for noncompliance with evolving trade rules. To counter these pressures, firms are diversifying production locations, expanding supplier networks and pursuing reshoring or nearshoring. European companies, in particular, appear to be pulling production closer to home: 73% have adopted regional production strategies this year, up sharply from 42% in 2024.

Viewed against the broader risk landscape, the trend is not static. Maersk’s own briefing on tariffs in 2025 outlines a landscape in which duties are a central concern, driving both uncertainty and deliberate changes in sourcing strategies. Firms are deferring or accelerating imports to manage duty exposure, using mechanisms such as Free Trade Zone storage to defer duties, and seeking guidance on customs compliance. Crucially, Maersk argues that success hinges on treating customs management as a strategic enabler rather than a back-office task, with organisations that embed compliance and classification into planning better positioned to weather disruptions.

A wider catalogue of analyses reinforces the sense that 2025 is a year of deliberate, strategic reconfiguration rather than episodic adjustment. Reuters reports that the United States is likely to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, but the outlook remains clouded by potential tariff actions and geopolitical risk. The piece notes that manufacturers have already begun to rebuild inventories and shift buying practices as firms balance the desire for secure supply with the realities of policy changes and consumer sentiment. In other words, tariff policy is not a single shock but a ongoing signal shaping where and how supply chains expand or contract.

The risk picture is further sharpened by Marsh’s 2025 Political Risk Report, which warns that rising geopolitical tensions and protectionist measures threaten the resilience of multinational supply chains. The report calls out new risk fronts tied to energy-transition dynamics, debt considerations and the increasing likelihood of policy volatility, urging firms to treat sanctions, regulatory risk and tariff regimes as strategic levers rather than administrative hurdles. In this environment, resilience depends on proactive risk management, diversified sourcing and scenario planning.

Against that backdrop, major consulting and policy-focused analyses point to converging strategies among large organisations to fortify supply chains. Capgemini’s 2025 study on reindustrialisation highlights a broad shift among European and US organisations toward rebuilding manufacturing capacity closer to markets. Around two-thirds have active or in-progress reindustrialisation plans, with more than half diversifying by nearshoring or reshoring in the past year. The report also notes a rising interest in friendshoring and proximity-centric approaches, underscoring the idea that resilience now rests on regional collaboration, rather than a pure push for global optimization.

Economist Impact’s Trade in Transition 2025 report adds nuance to the regional narrative. It finds that as many as 88% of businesses intend to reconfigure their supply chains in the near term, with diversification and localisation pitted against ongoing global links. Nearshoring and friendshoring are rising in prominence, while some firms pursue insourcing or regional supplier bases to bolster visibility and reduce exposure to cross-border shocks. The analysis recognises that near-term price pressures may accompany diversification, but argues that a balanced mix of regional focus and global connectivity offers the best path to sustained growth.

Europe’s supply-chain tectonics, as discussed by CEPR and its VoxEU column, reinforce the drift toward regional realignment. The EU is actively reorganising import patterns to reduce exposure to high-risk dependencies and to align with open strategic autonomy and de-risking goals. The trend includes greater diversification across regions and closer ties with agreement partners, though it also involves price pressures in the short term. The regional shift is not uniform: nearshoring is spreading among neighbouring partners, while some non-partner countries are seeing diminished shares. The overarching takeaway is that regional strategies can bolster resilience—provided they are paired with investment, executable plans and time.

Taken together, the year’s developments point to a clear, multi-pronged response to a harsher, more volatile trade environment. Companies are moving beyond cost-based optimisations to build supply chains that are more transparent, compliant and geographically adaptive. The emphasis on customs as a strategic capability dovetails with a broader push toward regional production networks and diversified sourcing. The task for policymakers, suppliers and manufacturers alike is to translate this convergence of signals into practical resilience: clear governance around compliance, smarter use of duty-deferral tools, and collaborative, cross-border planning that recognises the new geography of risk and opportunity.

In practice, what this means for companies is a phased, capability-led approach. Build regional anchors where regulatory and market conditions favour certainty; maintain flexible global links where strategic advantages persist; and embed risk management across procurement, logistics and compliance functions. As Maersk, Marsh, Capgemini, Economist Impact and policy-oriented analysts all suggest, the weather is changing. The question is whether firms will respond with the deliberate, integrated strategies that turn volatility into a catalyst for competitive advantage.

Source Panel

  • Maersk warns: Trade volatility is reshaping global supply chains. Inside Logistics.
  • Adapting to global tariffs in 2025. Maersk Insights, 19 May 2025.
  • Maersk expects continued US growth, warns growing uncertainty. Reuters, 2 April 2025.
  • Marsh Political Risk Report 2025: Global supply chains in the crosshairs.
  • The Resurgence of Manufacturing: Reindustrialisation strategies in Europe and the US. Capgemini, 2025.
  • Trade in Transition 2025: Economist Impact’s supply-chain restructuring analysis.
  • EU supply chain tectonics. CEPR VoxEU column.

Source: Noah Wire Services