Ryanair has warned that a prolonged conflict centred on Iran could force substantial cuts to European flight schedules this summer, with the airline’s chief executive saying up to a tenth of services might be axed if jet‑fuel supplies tighten.

Speaking to ITV News, Michael O’Leary said: "We're all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5%, 10% of flights through May, June and July." He repeated similar concerns on Sky News, adding: "Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market. We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated." He also said: "If the war finishes by April and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, then there is almost no risk to supply."

Industry observers say the disruption stems from rising oil prices and restricted tanker movements after the Strait of Hormuz , a conduit for roughly one fifth of global seaborne oil , was effectively closed. According to analysis in The Irish Times, Ryanair has hedged about 80% of its fuel requirements at lower rates, leaving roughly 20% exposed to market volatility, while the company has opted to postpone further hedging decisions until the end of June in the hope of greater price clarity.

The move to delay new hedges reflects a wider caution within aviation. The Irish Times reported that several carriers are holding off fresh fuel‑price protection amid highly unpredictable markets, and other low‑cost airlines have already started trimming schedules. Spanish news outlet AS noted capacity reductions and cancellations at rivals including Wizz Air, easyJet and Volotea as operators respond to mounting costs.

Smaller operators have felt the impact sooner. According to reporting in the Mirror, regional carrier Skybus cancelled all scheduled services from 3 April citing the spike in fuel costs and a decline in bookings, describing the combination as an "insurmountable barrier" to continuing flights on a publicly funded route.

Ryanair has urged travellers to book early to avoid higher fares if capacity is cut. Fortune quoted O’Leary advising passengers to secure summer trips promptly to lock in lower prices, while stressing that most flights would still operate even if some reductions are needed.

The situation presents a delicate balancing act for airlines: passing higher costs to customers risks depressing demand further, but absorbing price rises would hit margins already under pressure. Government figures and market data will be watched closely in the coming weeks as carriers decide whether to adjust timetables for May and June, or to accept steeper ticket prices to maintain schedules.

Source: Noah Wire Services